Toddyboorn from Toddyboorn wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 22:10:
onion dark website dark market list darknet drug store
MichaelAtomi from MichaelAtomi wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 22:05:
There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
гей порно
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
Timmyprill from Timmyprill wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 21:44:
darkmarket url darkmarket darknet links
Frankrap from Frankrap wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 21:26:
darknet websites dark web market urls dark web sites
Toddyboorn from Toddyboorn wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 21:25:
nexus site official link darknet markets url nexus darknet market
Marvincycle from Marvincycle wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 21:15:
Scooter and Bike Rental in Phuket becomes a breeze https://vk.com/motobike_phuket
Timmyprill from Timmyprill wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 21:04:
nexus darknet site darknet market nexus darknet market
DannyHoire from DannyHoire wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 20:57:
Renting a car in the United Arab Emirates is a convenient way https://california-invest.com/car-rental-services-in-dubai-prestige-comfort-and-driving-pleasure.html
JuliusTek from JuliusTek wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 20:29:
nexus link nexus onion darknet market
Frankrap from Frankrap wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 20:29:
darknet markets darkmarket list dark web markets
Timmyprill from Timmyprill wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 20:02:
darkmarket 2025 darknet drug store darknet links
Medicines prescribing information. Brand names.
promethazine medication purpose
All about medication. Read here.
get generic tetracycline without prescription
DannyHoire from DannyHoire wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:46:
Renting a car in the United Arab Emirates is a convenient way [url=https://alabama-news.com/rent-audi-in-dubai-at-yeti-main-advantages-of-the-service.html]https://alabama-news.com/rent-audi-in-dubai-at-yeti-main-advantages-of-the-service.html[/url]
Frankrap from Frankrap wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:44:
dark web market urls nexus darknet shop nexus onion mirror
DannyHoire from DannyHoire wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:33:
Renting a car in the United Arab Emirates is a convenient way [url=https://www.articletab.com/top-benefits-of-choosing-electric-car-rental-for-your-dubai-adventure/]https://www.articletab.com/top-benefits-of-choosing-electric-car-rental-for-your-dubai-adventure/[/url]
Timmyprill from Timmyprill wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:21:
nexus link darknet market lists nexus darknet market url
PamelaDiame from PamelaDiame wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:04:
you also will apply application to watch live broadcasts of competitions of the betwinner [url=http://194.199.196.229/PFE13/2025/05/23/explore-betwinner-brazil-your-ultimate-betting/]http://194.199.196.229/PFE13/2025/05/23/explore-betwinner-brazil-your-ultimate-betting/[/url].
Nikkyboorn from Nikkyboorn wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 18:57:
dark market darknet drug store darkmarket
JuliusTek from JuliusTek wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 18:52:
dark web link darknet links nexus url
wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:55: 
wrote at 14 giugno 2025, 19:52: 
